Navigating a slower, more uncertain market

By Emma Peterson. 

During his Cultivate 2026 presentation, Dr. Charlie Hall outlined the realities of operating in a post-pandemic economy where growth opportunities exist, but margins remain under pressure.   

Like many industries, COVID-19 created what could be described as a reset. What does that mean? Business dropped off and lost growth momentum during the pandemic. Today, we are just starting to regrow the market from that reset. In fact, during his Cultivate 2026 presentation, Dr. Charlie Hall, chief economist at AmericanHort and professor of International Floriculture at Texas A&M University Horticultural Sciences, talked about this. 

Specifically, he pointed to four trends that have emerged since 2019:  

1. Growers are reporting increasing intense weather, with one describing handling weather in the field as “a bare-knuckle boxing match most days.” 
2. Consumers have gravitated to lower-priced items, eroding the margins of many growers. 
3. The market is still unreliable, with one nursery operator saying that their business has been “profitable in odd years, unprofitable in even ones.”  
4. Tariffs have a huge impact, with profound sales drops felt when the worldwide tariffs were announced in 2025. 

The good news is that even with these struggles, “roughly 6 in 10 growers are up more than 25% versus pre-pandemic — in every survey.” Looking at all these trends and data, Dr. Hall surmised the state of the industry:  

The economy is running in place — GDP at 2.1%, activity slightly negative, sentiment cratered at 44.8 even as real disposable income is up 6.3%. People have money but they’re spooked. Labor is solid (unemployment 4.2%, claims 215K), yet 61.5% participation means the shortage isn’t resolving. I put recession odds under 20% — but this feels like treading water, not momentum. 

For operators, the mixed signals create openings: building-material and garden sales +7.5%, existing-home sales up, remodeling index at 62 — the hay is out there. But input costs stay high (grower index 173, diesel $4.67) while big-box comps limp at 0.6%. 

In other words, post-pandemic reset, we’ve entered a slower, price-led market thanks to flat units, stressed margin, unstable weather and volatile tariffs. Dr. Hall’s advice for professionals in the field is simple: “Hold pricing discipline, watch labor as the new H-2A rule resets your wage floor and don’t chase volume with discounts when confidence is this fragile.” 

Want to learn more? Check out Dr. Hall’s Index of Prices Paid by Growers report.