Key economic insights from Cultivate’25

By Dani Sheehan. 

This year’s state of the industry made clear that if you track trends, control costs and stay informed on policy, you’ll be positioned to grow – no matter what the market throws your way. 

As outdoor professionals continue to navigate the evolving economic landscape, AmericanHort’s State of the Industry Keynote at Cultivate’25 offered timely insights into the challenges and opportunities facing the green industry. With presentations from some of the most trusted voices in horticulture, attendees gained a clear-eyed view of where the industry stands today and how to prepare for tomorrow. 

Cultivate’25: More than just a trade show 

Held every summer in Columbus, Ohio, Cultivate is the premier event for professionals across horticulture, landscaping and outdoor living. This year’s keynote set the tone for the event, blending data-driven analysis with forward-looking strategies to help business owners manage rising costs, labor pressures, product availability and the impacts of federal policy. 

Economic health check 

In his economic update, Dr. Charlie Hall provided a snapshot of the industry’s financial performance so far in 2025: 

• Sales are up: 78% of growers report increased sales compared to 2024, and nearly all are up from 2019. 
• Profits are also trending higher, though with some variation depending on region, segment and product mix. 
• Unit sales are mixed, suggesting that while revenue is growing, volume may be more volatile. 

Retailers, including garden centers and big-box stores, are seeing a slight dip in customer counts compared to 2024, but the long-term trend remains positive, especially when benchmarked against pre-pandemic levels.  

What’s driving uncertainty? 

The biggest question marks moving forward are tariffs and inflation. According to Dr. Hall, steady import activity has temporarily masked the impact of new tariffs, but as existing inventories sell through, cost increases will begin to show up. He projects a 3.1% increase in grower costs for 2025, and potentially up to 9.4% in 2026 depending on how tariff policy evolves. 

Dr. Hall highlighted labor as the largest single cost factor for most growers, followed closely by materials like containers, plastics and fertilizers. His advice: keep a close eye on costs and margins and be proactive about forecasting. 

Staying resilient in a changing market 

Three essential takeaways for businesses navigating today’s challenges based on Dr. Hall’s forecasts include: 

• Recognize the mixed performance across the industry – Not all sectors are trending the same, so understand your specific market position. 
• Track customer analytics over time – Data can help you adjust strategies and retain loyal customers. 
• Manage your working capital and refine your value proposition – Smart financial planning and a clear brand promise are key to long-term success. 

Whether you’re in growing, landscaping, retail or design, this year’s keynote offered practical, actionable guidance to help your business thrive. If you missed it, you can catch AmericanHort’s full State of the Industry recording here.